Flocke = the Valenzetti equation

Hi there — my first post for a long time! Used to post a lot on the old Lost Theories site. Was most interested in ‘consciousness’ at that point and particularly Desmond as a character.


I now believe that the most important few minutes in the history of Lost concerns the conversation between Jacob and Flocke (is that the standard term now?). I believe that the simplest explanations are often the most accurate — in this case that Jacob is God/good and Flocke is the Devil/evil. We can take this meeting at face value — Jacob sees the value in ‘man’, whereas Flocke sees no value! Interesting that Flocke basically is the epitome of the Valenzetti equation. He states that it always ends the same! This is what the Valenzetti equation is stating —that the end can be predicted. For Flocke, the Valenzetti equation will always hold because ‘man’ can never change. Jacob believes that effectively, the Valenzetti equation can be disproved because ‘man’ can change for the good. It is ‘men’ that are the variables in the equation as Daniel posits. I suspect that every different group of people that have been brought to the island, have been brought there by Jacob. He is trying everything he can to disprove Flocke’s assertions. If we consider two of the groups we know most about ie the Others and the Dharma Initiative. I suspect that with the Others, Jacob has provided them with some of the secrets of the Island, knowledge that he exists and even, on occasion, direct contact with him. Would this knowledge change men sufficiently — apparently not. They still are deeply mistrusting of outsiders and likely to torture/kill anyone they view as unworthy. Again, Flocke is proved right. The Others continue to exist on the Island, but seem to get further and further from Jacob. If we then consider the Dharma Initiative — they can be viewed as the godless scientists. A lot of their experiments concern human behaviour and whether/how it can be changed. Rather like the Others their raison d’etre concerns the improvement of human life, but also like the Others, they quickly become a destructive force.  They attack what they don’t know/understand! Still, Flocke is proved right.


Clearly, there have been many other groups that have come to the Island — the Egyptians, the US army, Flight 815 — but as yet, Jacob has failed to prove that ‘men’ can change. It appears that the ‘end’ as predicted by the Valenzetti equation has occurred many times before. It also appears that the whole things seems to reset at that point, or maybe this is when ‘humanity extinguishes itself’, and Jacob simply moves the Island back to the start of time. Jacob is patient and believes that ‘progress’ is being made, whereas Flocke sees no progress and is tired of the whole thing. The only way to put an end to it is to kill Jacob. However, for some reason, he cannot kill Jacob himself. He has to find someone else to kill Jacob. This has proved impossible for a long time because Jacob adopts a non-interventionist approach. He lives in the ‘foot’ when the Black Rock arrives and he is still there several centuries later. Generally speaking he doesn’t get involved. Man has to change of his own free will. However, Jacob decides to get minimally involved with the Others in an attempt to disprove Flocke. He provides proof of his existence, and maybe suggests some of things that are important to him (e.g. free will), but generally remains uninvolved. However, he does allow a preordained ‘leader’ minimal contact with him at his discretion — this is the loophole that Flocke recognises. Whereas Jacob is non-interventionist, I think that Flocke is more than happy to get involved and attempt to encourage corruption wherever he can to prove his point. I am very interested in Flocke’s connection with Ben. Strange that the only time that Richard has not appeared clean cut, is when he first presented himself to Ben. Could this be Flocke? -who has met Richard previously when he was in chains, which could explain how he represents Richard to Ben. Flock knows of Richard’s role amongst the Others. His aim is to manipulate Ben into a position of power within the Others, and then use him as a tool to attack Jacob (the loophole). Strange that Jacob never allows Ben to meet him — is he aware that Flocke intends to use Ben to eventually kill him?


If we look at Flight 815, it appears that this is another group intended to disprove Flocke. In this case Jacob seems to have handpicked a specific few to prove he is right. I suspect that it is the redemptive nature of these characters storylines that may eventually help Jacob prove his case. Now that Jacob has been disposed of, I think that Flocke’s aim will be to corrupt these individuals and prevent this redemption and thus prove him right (or maybe he simply wants to kill them all as with Locke). The Valenzetti equation is proven again only this time there is no-one to reset the Island and Flocke can go home — wherever that is! One other point concerns exactly where in time our current Losties exist. There is a new leader or the Others, Rousseau has been dead for three years. This suggests that we are not in the same timeline as Richard/Sun and co. Makes me worry what Flocke might have done to them and whether Jin’s search for Sun might prove in vain.


As for Widmore — he is irrelevant. Just another corrupt man who proves Flocke right!


Overall, I think the Lost creators are using this show as an allegory for the world in its present state. We know that there is a strong religious element to this show, and I think Lost mirrors Darlton’s view of the world, and most importantly how God/Devil interact with the world. Jacob, as an allegory to God, has an inherent belief in the goodness in man, but over time has become less directly involved in trying to direct them. As a result, man has become less attached to Jacob/God, perhaps even looking to science for the most important answers. The death of Jacob is perhaps a metaphor for the increasingly godless society we live in. Flocke is a metaphor for the inherent corruptibility of man (some would describe that as the role of the devil). The more we know and understand, the more destructive we seem to become. And yet, there are still some who are connected to God (think of Hurley), and could potentially divert mankind from the destructive path it is set upon. It is these people (call them ‘variables’!) who provide hope that things could yet improve. Perhaps, in the end, Carlton and Damon are calling to us. We are the variables. We can just watch as the world goes to hell, or we can try and do something about it. I suspect this is the take home message that will eventually be associated with Lost.


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17 thoughts on “Flocke = the Valenzetti equation

  1. Good theory! Very logical, and one of the first I have read that actually delves into the minds of the writers themselves. What you say makes good sense, and I would love to see an ending where the losties do prove flocke wrong and change the equation, giving all of the viewers a message of hope that we can change the world as well, and there is no such thing as whatever happened, happened.

  2. Yeah, .. i like it too… there’s only one mistake, as far as i can tell… roussau has been dead for 3 years.. she died, when keamy and his assassins came to the island, which was 3years prior to when ajira316 landed. At least that’s what i get from richard saying to locke: it’s been three years…

    i don’t think the others, sun and lupidus who are with locke are in a different time, then jack, jin and co. a prove for that is also the firework….

    but still: i like your explanation and i’m quite sure it will turn out that way…

  3. Thank you for that. I had missed the fact that Ajira landed three years after Keamy + inexplicably forgotten about the firework. I was wondering whether Doegen had replaced Ben as leader, but it does seem that Dogen and Ben coexisted as leaders at the same time.

  4. I hope my favorite fiction doesn’t turn out to be an allegory for the world in its present state. I don’t need that, because I got the world here to see that. I want action, sci fi, etc, that takes me away from this world.

  5. When Juliet was being ‘tried’ by the Others it seemed there was another level of ‘Other Management’. Isabel seemed to at least be on a par with Ben. Dogen seems to be as much of a leader as Ben, but interestingly doesn’t seem that aware of who the Jack and co are.

  6. brothergib, what an outstanding theory, thoughts and insights.

    I agree with you on the points you have illustrated about The DI and ‘the losties’, the Valenzetti Equation in terms of Jacob and Nemesis. It is good logic.

    I happen to agree with your thoughts on the allegory for the world. The writers are exceptionally brilliant. Aside of making one of the finest shows in the history of television, they are making us all take a look at the ‘bigger picture’.

    Ifoundmyloophole brought up some very good points about sacrifice, forgiveness and redemption. We are seeing the characters transform in these areas continuously. Surely, there has to be a message for all of us to relate to in life.

    In a discussion with AES we addressed the issue of Free Will. God grants us Free Will, however it is the Devil who attempts to influence are choices. Haven’t we been seeing this occur throughout the show? I’d have to say yes.

    My hopes are that as individuals, that we walk away from the show not only being highly entertained, but a little bit more enlightened.

    I could say so much more on this topic, but feel we will have ample opportunity to discuss these issues throughout the season.

    Thanks for providing a very enjoyable read!

  7. Many thanks. I suspect that redemption is one of the important aspects that differentiate the losties from the others. Interesting that after the losties left the island, they largely reverted back to their old ways ie Sayid = murderer, Jack = drunkard, Hurley = mental illness. Largely this also seems to be prompted by Flocke – if you believe Christian is Flocke when he meets Jack in the hospital or if you believe that Ben acts as Flocke’s puppet in manipulating Sayid.

  8. nicely written
    i think richard was the only person able to see jacob on the island, not sure if anyone else has
    also, not so sure Locke is the bad guy in this. so far he has shown a different perspective, not necessarily a bad one.

  9. I agree with eluwan. Also, if we believe that Flocke is the black smoke, then he has also killed a number of people by himself. I’m sure he could defend this – they deserved it or I just want to go home – but not sure that argument would hold up in a court of law!!

    As for Richard being the only person to see Jacob on the Island – hasn’t Hurley seen Jacob, albeit as a ghost. Unless that was Flocke pretending to be Jacob – which just makes my head hurt!

  10. I like your post and it is well thought out, however I have to disagree with the main point, that being “I believe that the simplest explanations are often the most accurate — in this case that Jacob is God/good and Flocke is the Devil/evil.”

    The reason I do is b/c Jacob, though not directly involved, certainly has done some things that we would not consider “good”. He intentionally distracts Syiad so that his wife can

  11. Sorry, computer went crazy and it posted w/o allowing me to finish:

    I like your post and it is well thought out, however I have to disagree with the main point, that being “I believe that the simplest explanations are often the most accurate — in this case that Jacob is God/good and Flocke is the Devil/evil.”

    The reason I do is b/c Jacob, though not directly involved, certainly has done some things that we would not consider “good”. He intentionally distracts Syiad so that his wife can be hit and killed by a car; though not directly stated, allows Ben to wipe out the DHARMA Int. killing both adults and children, remember Richard is right there approving of the “purge”.

    I think these two examples alone show that Jacob is hardly “God/good” and MIB is “evil/devil”. I do think this is too simplistic of an answer, the writers of the show have demonstrated anything but that!

    My belief is the two def. are in a conflict with each other, both using humanity to prove a point. I posted this last year, but I’ll sumarize:
    -Jacob believes mankind has free will
    and can do good b/c there is a basic
    goodness in man
    -MIB believes mankind does not have
    free will and can only do that which
    is evil b/c man is bound to do what
    he truly is and cannot change

    I understand that this is similar to what you are saying, but I think both Jacob and MIB and put on the island until one of the other can ultimately prove their point and are freed to return home, yes, wherever that is!

    But again, I think Jacob and MIB are definitely willing to do whatever it takes to prove their point. Man is nothing more than lab rats in a maze and Jacob and MIB disagree on the nature of humankind and some how have been placed here until one side has been proven correct.

    I’m not saying Jacob is necessarily evil (like others have to tried to say), but I’m not ready to call him good either. I also believe that Jacob does have an affinity for man, but more along the lines of a pet at worst and at best he is hoping that man will “evolve” to something greater than what they are right now! Perhaps into something like him and MIB!

  12. Appledouble – if I am making the point that Jacob represents God/good, then it depends whether you think God is purely good. He may be flawed, but ultimately wants man to prove their goodness, but do it without his direct influence.

    I agree that Jacob’s involvement with the Oceanic 6 does argue against this point to a certain degree- specifically in the case of Sayid. However, I don’t think this is enough evidence to disprove the ‘simplest explanation’ theory. As for Richard and the purge – I think he has been told to help the leader of the others no matter what they decide. If the leader decides to purge others on the Island, Richard just has to accept that he has made this decision of his own free will.

  13. Very nice theory! I can see a lot of sense in this and hope it proves to be true. This is the kind of premise I enjoy – one with practical application.
    To discuss the nature of God can be a distraction and a sensitive thing, but bad things happen on the earth all the time simply because of Free Will. If Jacob is in fact pro-Free Will, then he cannot interfere when Ben chooses to purge the DI, for example. That is part of the deal. You can’t have Free Will only when things are going the way you want them, you have to allow it all the time for it to hold.

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