Whatever Happened, Happened
This is in response to Yojimbo’s post, ““If I Were a Betting Man…” – Pre-S6 Theory Roundup”, which can be found here: https://www.theoriesonlost.com/2010/01/if-i-were-a-betting-man-pre-s6-theory-roundup/
MILES: Has it occurred to any of you that your buddy’s actually gonna cause the thing he says he’s trying to prevent? Perhaps that little nuke is the incident? So maybe the best thing to do… is nothing?
An appropriate quote made by our loveable Ghostbuster in the episode appropriately titled “The Incident”.
In 1954, The Others meet Daniel, Charlotte and Miles. There is a H-Bomb on the island, and Daniel is instructed to go with Eloise to take a look at it. After looking at it Daniel tells Eloise that they need to take the bomb and bury it.
FARADAY: You bury it!
ELLIE: How do you know that?
FARADAY: Because 50 years from now, this island is still here!
After telling Eloise that he’s from the future, Daniel disappears right in front of her eyes.
In 1977, Eloise comes accross this same man, only she shoots him and kills him, unaware that he’s her son. She obviously believes Jack and Kate when they tell her they’re from the future, as she’s had 23 years to think about the day that Daniel had disappeared right in front of her.
So, Eloise is on board with the time travel thing, and after Jack tells her that all of what’s just happened can be erased (as Daniel had claimed), she takes Jack to the H-Bomb and the events lead up to The Incident.
What happens next? That’s the big question.
My belief is, as the title says, Whatever Happened, Happened.
When Juliet detonates the bomb, because of the Electromagnetism and the location of the bomb, it doesn’t destroy the island. It does some damage around The Swan area, but the island and most of its inhabitants are still there.
Dr Chang managed to get away from the area before the bomb blew, but his hand was seriously damaged and he would’ve had to have it amputated (as per one of the Dharma Orientation videos). Radzinsky continues to build The Swan, and becomes the first person to “push the button”.
When Eloise comes to from being knocked out by Richard, Richard tells her that Jack and co. succeeded in detonating the bomb but were unsuccessful in blowing up the island. Richard thinks that anyone in that vicinity is dead, so his words to Sun in 2007 “I saw them all die” make sense. He didn’t have to physically see them die to say that, just knowing that they were there when it happened could allow for those words.
Eloise is distraught by this news and realises that you can’t change the past. She leaves the island and gives birth to Daniel and spends most of her time researching time travel, setting up the Lamp Post, and pushing Daniel towards a life of physics. She knew that once Daniel would leave on that trip to the island that he wouldn’t come back alive, but she knew it had to be done.
The reason that Jack, Kate, Sayid and Hurley had to go back to the island was because if they didn’t, “god help us all”. Eloise knew they were there in the 70s, so she knew she had to get them back to the island for that to happen.
Sun and Frank didn’t belong in the 70s which is why they stayed in 2007.
When Jacob says “They’re coming”, he’s refering to the Oceanic 815 survivors from the 70s. The H-Bomb and Electromagnetism caused an effect which sends them back to their own time, to 2007. They meet with Richard, Sun et al who fill them in on what’s happening at the statue and the war ensues.
Team Jacob v Team Flocke
There are 2 Lockes on the island because the real Locke is dead. Dead is dead. Flocke is MIB, he’s found his Loophole and now has a war to fight against Richard, The Others, The Oceanic 815 / Ajira 316 Survivors and whoever else wants to fight for Jacob.
The only thing I don’t have an answer for is Claire. I don’t know for sure, but I’d like to believe she’s alive.