Smokey’s past, present and future
This theory is an attempt to explain what smokey is and what his motives are. I’ll start with a philosophical point. If we consider good and evil, or perhaps God and the Devil, then one could argue that an explanation of God does not need to include humankind. The trees, the birds, the bees etc can all exist due to God, without the presence of humans. However, humans are a prerequisite for the Devil. Evil is a manifestation of humans. You cannot have an evil tree, or an evil bumblebee, but you can have an evil human. You might try to argue that animals can have evil traits, but invariably this is due to the influence of humans. This is the starting point for my explanation of Smokey.
Next, let us consider what makes humans different. Like everything in the universe, at the most basic level, humans are made of matter. If we agree with Einstein’s theory of relativity, then matter and energy are interchangeable. Now, what is it that makes us different. It is our consciousness, our ability to think, to make conscious (rather than instinctive) choices. Evil is borne of this ability to think. If we link these two bits of information together, we have the probability that thought is a form of energy. Thought is definitely a ‘something’, not a ‘nothing’. If thought is energy, then by the laws of physics, it cannot be destroyed. If this is true, then all thought continues to exist. And if these thoughts were to coalesce in some way, then maybe it could form some kind of entity. The Egyptians might have called it ‘Seth’, we might call it ‘the Devil’, but in fact it is simply a reflection of us. This is what I think Smokey represents. There is plenty of evidence of Smokey reflecting various Losties thoughts back at them (Mr Eko is the obvious person who springs to mind). When Smokey corrupts people (think of Sayid), they simply reflect the worst components of their own character.
So, I think Smokey represents the accumulation of evil thoughts of the various people he is exposed to. In terms of wondering about Smokey’s history, I wonder whether the Egyptians attempted to banish Smokey to the Island. There is a fair bit of evidence that some of the Egyptian architecture on the Island can trap/control Smokey in some way – look at how Ben unleashes Smokey onto Keamy and colleagues. Smokey also talks about how he has been trapped, and that he wants to come home. Is it possible that the Egyptians brought Smokey to the Island in an attempt to isolate him from the rest of humanity – simply done if you have a bag of ‘Jacob Ash’ handy! Perhaps the Valenzetti equation predicts the return of Smokey to civilization, and the subsequent destruction of humanity. That is what Jacob, Ilana etc are trying to prevent. I wonder if this is the explanation of the comment ‘it always ends the same’. But maybe, as long as Jacob survived on the Island, time would simply reset, and everything would be repeated again.
It is now clear that Smokey is nearing the end of his journey. He has found the loophole, and destroyed most of the people who would work against him. So what happens in the end? I suspect that it has something to do with the sunken Island. The ‘candidate(s)’ probably need to find a way to stop Smokey getting off the Island and returning home. This will be the end game – sinking the Island and saving humanity. This might require a selfless act (Hurley?), and Smokey’s intention is to corrupt the ‘candidates’ sufficiently to prevent this from happening. Perhaps this explains the alternate timeline, where our characters seem to generally make ‘good’ choices compared to before.
What is Jacob in this equation? I’m happy to invite opinion – I have my own! How does Richard fit in? I suspect he was somehow corrupted by Smokey in the past. Maybe he has a previous ‘candidate’. That might be why he is happy to follow Jacob seemingly without question. That’s it for now!

Yes, Yes, Yes.
You have to read “Record Theory-Awesome” post ,I think you would like it. Also read my post on thge previous post called “Jacobs loop”.
Its nice to have someone on the same path.
What a lovely job you have done with your theory, brothergib!
I have yet to see anyone present such compelling evidence that Nemesis aka The Smoke Monster is evil. Nice work!
You are correct about ‘thought’ being energy….and that energy cannot die, it can only be transformed.
I like many of your ideas presented here, as they seem plausible.
Awesome theory!
Wharfrat – Enjoyed your comment on the previous post. Totally agree that the Flash Sideways world is a version of events untouched by Jacob/MIB as they are both dead. The series will end with the sinking of the Island, and we will be left with the probability that the Flash Sideways world is how things turned out in the end. Am now going to read your other theory! PS – make sure you tick the Theories box when generating a post. If you don’t, your theory ends up in the general section. Made that mistake myself!
Dabs – Thanks for the kind comments. You can also switch ‘thoughts’ and ‘consciousness’. The reason that individual consciousness can jump, is because all thought exists (we often think about the future), so in theory we can exist in any state ie past, present or future. But maybe if Smokey continues to exist and is linked to thought, then no matter ‘where’ you exist, Smokey can still corrupt you.
There’s plenty of good ideas here, and if I may say so myself, you have an interesting post. To maybe branch off of this, I think the alternate timeline (with the sunken island) might be the timeline where MIB has ventured off into the world, we just haven’t seen it, or noticed it yet.
I have no strong evidence to support it other than Helen’s black nail polish. LOL, yes, that is all I have. What would the significance be of showing us ANY of this alternate timeline though, if there was no threat at all?!
Just read your last comment, that works too.
Nice…this also goes along with my thoughts on whatever sunk the island and created the new timeline….hasnt happened yet…i think it was just made to look like the bomb did it
Wharfrat – read your other post. Impressive stuff. With regard to the ‘candidates’, I suspect that Smokey is going to try and corrupt them and turn them on each other. I wonder if we will see Losties killing each other in future episodes!! If he gets rid of them all, he knows he cannot be harmed.
Chiefof16 – When Hurley appeared in the alt timeline to help Locke, he was dressed in black, and I wondered if he was now the MIB, but a good version. He just sad a sort of otherworldliness to him. Not sure I think that anymore, but it might be something to think about!!
Henrygale108 – I totally agree. This is a sleight of hand by Carlton and Damon! I think if we were to view this chronologically we would watch the on Island events play out, and end with the sinking of the Island and then the world would reset as suggested by wharfrat, and then we see the alternate timeline occur.
Very nicely put together theory. I guess Dogen already told us that Smokey is evil incarnate, but I’ve never actually thought of Smokey as a cloud of evil thoughts before.
However, is it correctly understood that according to your theory, Smokey only represents a finite amount of evil – not all evil in the world? I suppose so, since there has been evil going on in the outside world ever since Smokey was supposedly trapped on the Island by the Egyptians.
So what will happen if Smokey escapes? Exactly how much more evil will the rest of the world become? Will he bring the infection to the outside world?
Great theory.
Scientifically thought is not necessarily energy. In actuality thought is just a neurological phenomena as produced by our brains/neurons. There is nothing special about human verses animal or plant life, it’s just that are brains are wired more complicated.
I’m still holding on to Smokey being Jacob’s brother and both are/were human as MIB so eloquently put it. Matter of fact, we have seen it with our own eyes in Season 5 finale. Both Jacob and MIB had human form.
awesome post, awesome comments. I’m going to use some of these thoughts and theories in my own Record theory. good stuff.
Why do you think Jacob referred to Smokey as an ‘old friend’
In the S5 finale they sat down together, Jacob offered him food, he said he had EATEN! MIB even said that has experienced love.
I think whatever happened to MIB that made him so evil & smokey happened on that island at the hand of Jacob – or possibly a 3rd party.
Ilieintheshadowofthestatue. Yes, I guess the infection would spread. The infection seems to bring out the very worst in people, which would lead to a very destructive period for the outside world, culminating in its demise.
Username. It can not categorically be stated that humans are no different from other forms of life. My other life is as a neuroscientist, and I can tell you that there is no generally accepted view on consciousness. We certainly cannot completely explain it by neurotransmitter firing in the brain. With regard to Jacob/MIB, I agree that there is something else. They may well have been brothers. Is it possible they were both from Egypt, and it is MIB who somehow mutated? into the Smoke Monster. Maybe he came into contact with this primordial evil entity? He was banished to the Island, and Jacob (as his brother) agreed to keep watch over him?
Joshcgs. I don’t think Jacob made Smokey, but it is possible he arose on the Island – not sure how that would explain Smokey’s desire to go home!
Hey brothgib,
I like your scenario around why Jacob is with MIB on the Island.
With respect to “consciousness”, this is a human term and as such is in my opinion just another term that we try to use to separate us from other species and to make us feel special. There is no doubt in my mind that all primates exhibit such a concept of “consciousness” but at different levels and in the end it’s just the neurotransmitters firing in the brain. I’m not a “neuroscientist” so it does not make much sense arguing the issue with you on an scientific academia basis. I’m surprised that in your field that such a concept is not globally accepted. Throughout history humans have invented concepts because we could not explain them or because we thought we were special. But then again, I guess that’s what LOST is all about.
brothergib–I also like the idea of the new timeline that we have seen ocurring after the current island drama is finished. It seems to me that, so far, the sideways flashes are positive for Jack and Hurley, and negative for Sayid Jin and Locke and nuetral for Kate, which kind of parallels where they are on the island right now. I am wondering if that is foreshadowing the outcome of the struggle on the island, because it seems as if Jack and Hurley are the last best hope for Jacob right now. Do you have any ideas about what the island is and why it is difficult to find?
Username. I certainly don’t regard myself as more qualified than anyone else to talk about consciousness. My point is that science really can’t explain aspects of consciousness. As a result, all opinions are valid and equally evidence based. My opinion is that chemical transmission does not provide the complete answer. I guess Noetic science looks into this area to a certain degree.
Odette. My understanding is that we will be told what the Island is. I suspect it is something abstract. Could be something that actually influences the behaviour of humanity depending on how dominant Smokey is on the Island. There may also be an allegorical explanation. It may be a representation of our subconcious, with good and evil battling to determine how we behave. This would also link to why the Island is difficult to find – it is our subconcious. Another supportive piece of evidence for this are all the links to Alice in Wonderland which is all about the essence of ‘reality’.